Kentucky Derby 136 Could Prove "Awesome" or "Lucky" for Some
By Ellis Starr for Equibase

The field for the 136th running of the Grade 1, $2 million Kentucky Derby has seen many twists and turns during the prep season and even more in the last week after the preps were concluded. Now that the full field of 20 is set, its time to take a step back and see what the field has accomplished, and in doing so hopefully get a clear picture of the main contenders compared to those that may not be able to cut it at this level as they run in the biggest race of their careers to date. Of course we should start with the likely public choice in Lookin At Lucky, who won his only start on a conventional dirt surface (like the one at Churchill Downs) when victorious in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in March. Although third as the heavy favorite after that in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Lookin At Lucky has a right to return to top form with the removal of blinkers for the Derby and with a potentially hot early pace scenario on tap as Line of David and Conveyance run as hard and as fast as they can to establish the early lead from the start. Awesome Act, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes in March, is another horse whose last race may not be indicative of what he is capable of considering that he lost a shoe and stumbled at the start of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial following the Gotham.

Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy gets the extreme outside 20 post position for the Kentucky Derby, which may require him to come from off the pace even though he led from start to finish in winning all three of his Derby prep races in California. Super Saver missed by a neck to Line of David in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and may be peaking at the right time, the Derby marking his third race following thee and one-half months on the bench. The filly Devil May Care put it all together to win the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes in her most recent start and also appears to be hitting her best form in time for the Derby. Then there are recent stakes winners like Stately Victor, upset winner of the Grade 1Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, American Lion, winner of the Grade 3 Illinois Derby in his most recent race and Dean's Kitten, who proved victorious in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes at the end of March. Last but not least among Kentucky Derby prep winners is Grade 1 Florida Derby victor Ice Box and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David, along with a host of runners that have finished second or third in recent races.

With all the potential angles in play that make it tough to separate some contenders from one another, I have divided my selections into two tiers, with the first tier including horses I feel carry the bulk of the probability to run well enough to win the Derby, and with the second tier comprising horses that are capable of running second through fifth and therefore must be considered for any exacta, trifecta or superfecta wager we make in the Kentucky Derby.

The first tier:

Awesome Act earned a career best 110 Equibase® Speed Figure when winning the Gotham Stakes in March, showing a substantial turn-of-foot in the stretch to win more easily than it appears on paper. Following the Gotham, Awesome Act was compromised by a poor start in which he stumbled and lost a shoe, racing the remainder of the one and one-eighth mile race with the equivalent of a flat tire. Nevertheless, Awesome Act was eager to run and moved up from last to get to second with an eighth of a mile to go before weakening, yet still just a neck from the runner-up at the end as winner Eskendereya powered on to win by almost 10 lengths. With it appearing likely that Awesome Act can actually improve off his Gotham effort in the Derby, which will be only his third race after the layoff, and with two recent strong workouts over the Churchill Downs surface, I believe Awesome Act has what it takes to win Derby 136.

Lookin At Lucky wasn’t very lucky when he drew the rail for this year’s Derby, because in a field of 20 with a number of horses trying to get position closer to the rail before the first turn, it is possible he could be shuffled back in the early stages. Of course, jockey Garrett Gomez could ask the colt for some early speed to keep that from happening and hope it does not take its toll on him in the late stages. On form, Lookin At Lucky may deserve the favoritism bestowed on him by the public, as prior to his troubled third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby last month he had won six of seven and finished second (by a head) in his other race. The best of his previous efforts came when winning the Rebel Stakes in March and earning a 108 Equibase® when racing on a conventional dirt surface for the first time. Having demonstrated a tremendous desire to win in all of his races to date, to go along with the ability to do so, Lookin At Lucky could overcome his disadvantageous post and wear the blanket of roses in this year’s Derby.

Devil May Care ran the fastest race of any Derby entrant when winning the Bonnie Miss Stakes on March 20, as she earned a 113 Equibase® with that effort. That was faster than the 112 figure Sidney's Candy earned in the Santa Anita Derby and that was faster than the 111 figure Ice Box earned winning the Florida Derby. As such, it makes sense that she be entered in the Kentucky Derby instead of the Kentucky Oaks following the defection of early Derby favorite Eskendereya and with John Velazquez available to ride her after piloting her to victory in the Bonnie Miss. Much more focused in her morning drills of late in blinkers, which she will wear for the first time in the Derby, Devil May Care may certainly have more to show us as it appears she has yet to peak, and could be the first filly to win the Derby since Winning Colors in 1988.

Stately Victor posted the 40 to 1 upset to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month at Keeneland, the reason he was disregarded by the public being that he had lost six races in a row and had not shown much ability or desire to win in any of them. However, the way Stately Victor won the race with a big burst of speed in the last eighth of a mile and the fact he may have just “gotten it” in terms of understanding what is expected of him on the track leads me to believe that his last victory was not a fluke. Earning a career best 104 Equibase® in the Blue Grass and having shown the burst of speed at the right point to be successful in a race like the Derby, Stately Victor has made my list of contenders to win the Derby and as such will not be discounted when considering my wagers.

Frankly, I am pleased that Sidney's Candy drew an outside post, although I would have liked it to be 15 or 16 and not 20. The reason is that I never believed he is the front runner his past performance would indicate because all of his recent victories came on the synthetic track at Santa Anita. Looking at his races and how he ran, Sidney's Candy appears to be just as capable of coming from behind as he is in leading from the start, and the Derby will be his chance to prove it, given that the other entrant from the barn of John Sadler is Line of David, a confirmed front runner. It is doubtful that Sadler will instruct both Joe Talamo on Sidney's Candy and Rafael Bejarano aboard Line of David to go for the lead from the start, particularly considering that Conveyance is going to want the early lead at any cost. Having improved his Equibase® figures in each of his last three races, culminating with a career best 112 figure in the Santa Anita Derby, Sidney's Candy is on a strong pattern to take another step forward and if he does indeed relax off the early pacesetters he could be the horse making the lead at the right time and going on to win the Derby.

Super Saver rounds out my win contender group, not only because his last two efforts earned consistent 107 and 108 figures, but also because he gets the services of Calvin Borel, who has won two of the last three editions of the Kentucky Derby, first with Street Sense in 2007 and then last year with upsetter Mine That Bird. Borel rode Super Saver for the first time last fall here at Churchill Downs to a resounding five length win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and after a one race absence rode him to a big effort in the Arkansas Derby when missing by a neck on the wire to Line of David. Having shown nothing but desire to win in his last three races and with the likelihood of improvement off his Arkansas Derby effort in his third start after being off for thee and one-half months, Super Saver could be the second son of Maria’s Mon to capture the Kentucky Derby, Monarchos having achieved glory when winning this race in 2001.

The second tier:

These are the horses I would definitely consider for exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers, given that the payoffs in a 20 horse field such as this year’s Derby can be substantial.

Ice Box closed fastest of all to win the Florida Derby by a nose with a strong 111 figure and although his style isn’t conducive to winning the Derby (only Giacomo in recent years -2005 - having rallied from far back in the last quarter of a mile to win), he may get the benefit of a “pace meltdown” if Line of David and Conveyance go for the lead from the start at any cost and are pushed by a few other horses into setting well above average early fractions. Another issue of concern besides his late closing style is that Ice Box has not raced in six weeks and historically that is a disadvantage as most Derby winners have had their most recent prep races three to five weeks from the Derby.

Noble's Promise would seem to have some distance limitations in his pedigree that could hinder his chances to win at the classic distance of one mile and one-quarter, but nevertheless he may be good for a share of the purse by finishing in the top three. He lost his best chance to achieve the tactical position from which he could have been successful in the Arkansas Derby when he was bumped and taken back at the start, then he rushed up and found traffic trouble once more, settling for fifth at the end. Prior to that, Noble's Promise earned a career best 108 figure when leading late and ending up a neck behind Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel, an effort that could be repeatable in the Derby to be part of the exacta at the least.

Jackson Bend has finished second in three straight races, all three of his sophomore preps leading to the Derby, earning 98 and 99 figures, respectively, in his two most recent races. Never worse than second in nine career starts, Jackson Bend was beaten by Eskendereya soundly in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Wood Memorial, but with Eskendereya out of the picture Jackson Bend certainly may at least continue his runner-up ways in the Derby.

Mission Impazible earned a career best 101 figure when winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Continuing his pattern of improving figures and with more reasons for improvement to be found as the distances increase, Mission Impazible may be a cut below the top group of contenders but that doesn’t mean he won’t finish well to complete the trifecta or superfecta in the Derby.

Dublin has finished second or third in all three of his recent Derby prep races, earning figures from 103 to 107 which put him in the same category as the other four horses in this second tier group. Although it doesn’t appear likely that Dublin can break through the 110 figure threshold that appears to be needed to win this race, on the other hand he has shown a competitive spirit in all three starts this year such that he can not be ignored as we consider all the wagering opportunities this race presents.

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