SureBet’s Onsite Derby Digest
with Tom Dawson -
Posted April 28, 2010
PM
Well the draw is done. The buzz moment came when the favorite Lookin At
Lucky drew the rail, followed
immediately by second choice Sidney’s Candy landing in the 20 spot. I can’t ever remember the two Derby favorites as bookends in the gate.
Here’s the general consensus on post positions. Drawing the one exposes you to pressure from the 19 others to outside as horses drop over trying to save ground the first time through the stretch. The raw post position stats show the #1 as being tied at the top of the list with 12 winners. But a closer look reveals that the most recent was Ferdinand in 1986. So 23 Derbies have been run since the rail post won. The anti-inside sentiment was heightened during the years of a post selection draw as trainers generally avoided the #1 like it was contaminated.
Drawing the 20 post makes it mandatory to work out a trip in the first quarter mile. It was the one and only knock on Big Brown in 2008, but he was able to do just that. It helped that he was the best horse.
Lookin at Lucky has been anything but lucky in big race draws. Remember that in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he lost by a head, probably quite a bit less ground than his outside draw cost him. But as co-owner Mike Pegram said today, “I’d rather have a good trip than a good draw. That’s the key, a good horse and a good trip”. The good horse part is not in question. When asked about strategy, Pegram had a blueprint.
“Just follow the Real Quiet model”, he said, referring to his 1998 Derby winner. “Save ground through the turn, swing out when the time is right and beat them to the wire.”
I confess that I missed not having the selection process. Because of the strategy involved, all trainers were present, plus many jockeys and owners. It was annually the biggest gathering of Derby participants before they all went to the paddock on race day. It was a partially a made for TV event, but it had a lot of other plusses.
Bob Baffert missed it, too. He wanted to know why, during all those years, he never drew the one when it would have meant getting any post he wanted. Wayne Lukas is in the other camp. Ne never liked it. This morning he told me it didn’t make good TV either. I took proper offense, since I produced that show for ESPN for about 15 years. With some of the NBC talent in the group, Lukas took particular delight in giving me the needle.
I caught Todd Pletcher at his barn during a quiet moment this morning. Those don’t often happen as his multiple Derby story lines keep the press buzzing around all the time.
Look for the presence of the filly Devil May Care to be a growing story this week. Pletcher said that she has trained on a par with his Derby horses all along and that she’ll love the distance. It may have been a fairly recent decision to enter her in the Derby instead of the Oaks but the possibility was always there. Of the 366 three years olds nominated to the Derby back in January, Devil May Care was one of only eight fillies.
She will also race with blinkers for the first time to help her focus. Morning line odds maker Mike Battaglia gave her plenty of respect, making her co-third choice at 10-1.
The trainer believes Mission Impazilbe is coming to the race well. “he’s had a progressive spring”, Pletcher said. “He has the right style and I like the way he handled a mile and an eighth on the long stretch at the Fair Grounds”. As for Super Saver, the trainer said “He has played catch-up not getting a start until Tampa Bay
(Derby, March 13). He was better in Arkansas and we’re hoping Saturday will be his best race yet”.
Super Saver is one of two still in the race for WinStar Farms, co-owned by El Paso native Bill Casner.
As you likely know, WinStar’s Sunland Derby winner Endorsement was injured this morning and will not run. When I spoke to Casner at the draw, he express particular regret for trainer Shannon Ritter, calling Endorsement the best horse she has ever had. WinStar will also be represented by American Lion, trained by Eoin Harty
The weather is great today for the first race day of Derby week. Even ordinary races seem to look better against the backdrop of the infield tents, marquee village, extra jumbo screens and Derby signage. If you wandered in here without a clue about the Derby, you would know something big is about to happen.