SureBet’s Onsite Derby Digest with Tom Dawson - brought to you by Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino - posted May 1, 2010 - Update 3 -
The rain has cranked up again which may be good for the front runners. All day, including the 8th race, leaders have been collapsing in the final furlong. In the Humana Distaff, Californian Mona De Momma swept down the preferred outside path to win under Joel Rosario. She was 8 wide but today, who cares? Rally wide to win.
Then about the time you put the front runners on automatic dismissal, somebody wires the field. In the Churchill Downs Stakes, Turf Paradise shipper Atta Boy Roy took them all the way, just holding off the late charge of Grade one winner Warrior’s Reward. On paper, Roy looked much more improbable than his 10-1 odds might suggest. Oh, he had won his share (8 for 17) but his recent form was Turf Paradise and Emerald Downs. This was a tough field, with graded winners and professional racehorses from all over the place. It’s not that he shouldn’t have won, he was an underlay.
The only reason he was 10-1 instead of 25-1 is Calvin Borel. You might remember when Pat Day was king of Churchill. You couldn’t get a price on him for anything. It’s becoming that way with Borel. He’s a good rider anywhere but Shoemaker on this course. His win percentage for the meet is something like 40%. As is customary, Borel stayed on the rail all the way around. No one else has been able to negotiate that path to victory today. His Derby mount is Super Saver, certainly a horse with a chance. At last glance he was co-favored at 8-1. The Borel factor.
No more dirt races until the Derby, something over 2 hours from now. Time to figure out what to do with this menagerie and make a play. It’s really crowded here now. The fashionably late are now the fashionable arrived.