SureBet’s Onsite Derby Digest with Tom Dawson - brought to you by Sunland Park Racetrack & Casino - posted May 1, 2010 -  Update 4  - Must be approaching derby time. The weather is deteriorating. Raining & blowing. But I didn’t come all this way to watch it on a monitor.

A lot of smart people have landed on the same spot for the Derby. Stately Victor. Currently 19-1.

The group includes Steve Haskin, Derby guru for the Blood-Horse and Randy Moss of the Moss Pace figures and ESPN. Mike Battaglia of NBC told me he liked him. Marty McGee of the Daily Racing Form gives him a chance, as does my nephew Elliot. Can so many savvy folks be wrong?

Sometimes, when a lot of people like the same long shot, it becomes what my friend and NBC analyst Bob Neumeier calls a “shi shi” horse. Fashionable to a fault. Too many leaping headlong onto the bandwagon.

Well, I’m not jumping on. The fact that I haven’t dome much right today makes me even less inclined to change. Maybe the law of averages will help me.
I’m looking to get lucky with Lookin for Lucky. One hole and all. I think he’s good enough and he’s 8-1.

I’m using him with Mission Impazible, Sidney’s Candy and Super Saver. I just talked to Calvin Borel’s agent Jerry Hissum. He didn’t tout me on Super Saver but rather reminded me that he WILL be on the rail.

I told him that Calvin was the only jockey to win on the rail on the main track rail all day. Hissum said that what other jocks think is the rail, and what Borel considers the rail to be are different things. Borel, he said, is ON the rail.

Well, Lookin At Lucky is starting on the rail. Maybe he can pull a Calvin and just stay there. But I really think that if he is to win it, Garrett Gomez will employ the rally wide style used by the non-Borels all day long.

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