Work'n the Derby trail - by Brock Sheridan special report for SureBet

February 22, 2011 - With the first Saturday in May falling just 67 days after the end of February, it is time to start looking seriously at the contenders for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1). For the last two weekends, preparations have been taking place in six stakes from south Florida to San Francisco, as the class of 2011 begins to further develop toward the “Run for the Roses.” Make no mistake that there is much to clarify and achieve between now and May 7 at Churchill Downs. But we are already seeing projected players falling away, while new stars are stepping on stage. And there are those who have not yet arrived at the theater, but are sure to have plenty of fanfare when they do.

The top player in this class, without doubt, is 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo. His Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) victory in November was as impressive as any since Arazi’s explosive move off the final turn in the 1991 Juvenile. Uncle Mo was undefeated as a 2-year-old, but has yet to make the first start of his sophomore season. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been bringing the son of Indian Charlie back from vacation at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida with some very nice published works, and is expected to return to the races March 12. The question is where? Owner Mike Repole has said the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16 miles and the $100,000 Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream are both options on that day.

Training well at nearby Payson Park in Indiantown, Fla., is To Honor and Serve, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes and Grade 2 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November. He too has yet to make his first start this year for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who is looking for his first Kentucky Derby winner. A son of Bernardini, To Honor and Serve is expected to make his 2011 debut in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 26.

Perhaps the most recognizable new kid on the block is Brethren, a comfortable winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade 3) at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 12. Undefeated in three starts, Brethren is royally bred by Distorted Humor and out of the A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, making him a half-brother to last year’s Derby winner Super Saver. Also like Super Saver, Brethren is trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by WinStar Farm. His next start may be in Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2), but only if stablemate Uncle Mo does not enter, as previously scheduled, and runs in the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream the same day.

Trainer Nick Zito has won the Kentucky Derby twice and the Preakness and Belmont Stakes once each and comes prepared each year with an armament of potential Triple Crown runners. This year, Zito has again started with a bang, winning the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park Jan. 30 with Dialed In. Now undefeated in just two starts, Dialed In is also being pointed to the Fountain of Youth Stakes along with To Honor And Serve. Like last year’s Zito-trained Derby runner-up Ice Box, Dialed In won the Holy Bull with a late rally, so expect another late run from him in the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth. He is by the A.P. Indy son and Horse of the Year Mineshaft and out of the Storm Cat mare Miss Doolittle. What may intrigue you about this pedigree, both A.P. Indy and Storm Cat are out of Secretariat mares -- giving Dialed In bloodlines going back four generations to the great Triple Crown winner on both the sire and dam’s sides. (Secretariat 4S X 4D if you’re scoring at home.)

Mucho Macho Man seems to be a horse of some character and desire, winning the Risen Star Stakes (Grade 3) at Fair Grounds Saturday. Although the Risen Star Stakes has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner, it has produced a Derby favorite in Friesan Fire in 2009 and several Derby starters such as Discreetly Mine last year and Lawyer Ron in 2006.

It is also notable that Mucho Macho Man came back strong from a disappointing loss in the Holy Bull Stakes behind Dialed In. Mucho Macho Man also had the bridesmaid title late in his 2-year-old campaign behind To Honor and Serve in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct, so this determined win in the Risen Star may be notable.

The Risen Star also provided good performances from the runner-up Santiva and third-place finisher Rogue Romance. Rogue Romance was making his first start since running third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind winner Uncle Mo. Santiva was making his first start since winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November. So it is likely there will be improvement from both Santiva and Rogue Romance in their next starts on the Derby trail.

Like Zito, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is very seldom left out of the run for Kentucky after winning the Derby three times himself. This year he comes with Jaycito, winner of the Norfolk (Grade 1) during the Oak Tree meeting at Hollywood Park in November, and The Factor, winner of the 7-furlong San Vicente at Santa Anita Feb. 20. However, both have their challenges. 

In his last start as a 2-year-old, Jaycito finished an eventful seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after a drastic swerve in the stretch. By Victory Gallop, Jaycito is well bred but has been known to be a bit of a challenge to train. Jaycito could make his return in the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita March 12, where he could face other Derby hopeful Comma to the Top -- who disappointed as the favorite in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Feb. 12, finishing fourth behind winner Silver Medallion.

The Factor set a record in his first start, going six furlongs in 1:06.98 over a track that was producing fast times throughout the Santa Anita opening day and winning by more than 8 lengths. After some reported foot problems, The Factor came back with a vengeance, winning the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita Feb. 20. Although the challenge of winning at seven-eighths of a mile in February to taking the 9-furlong Kentucky Derby in just more than two months is daunting, Baffert took the same path with his Silver Charm in 1997.

It seems there has been a trend over the last few years for trainers to put fewer races into a prospective Derby contender before the going to Kentucky. In fact, the last four winners of the Kentucky Derby (Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Big Brown and Street Sense) all came to Churchill Downs in May with only two previous races those years.

So naturally, one might want to look for a few more Kentucky Derby hopefuls that have not yet started this year. After the aforementioned, Astrology and Stay Thirsty are perhaps the most popular of the 3-year-olds with no races this year.

After trainer Steve Asmussen lost his leading Kentucky Derby contender Tapizar to a knee chip discovered after his disappointing race in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Grade 3) at Santa Anita Feb. 12, the trainer will be turning to the bench to call on Astrology. The big son of A.P. Indy won the Grade 3 Iroquios Stakes and was second by a nose behind Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Grade 2), both at Churchill Downs. So we know he likes the Churchill Downs surface. He just has to prove he is qualified for the return trip. Although Astrology appears on many folks’ Kentucky Derby lists, he is not exactly turning heads with his morning appearances. On Feb. 11, he worked a half-mile in :51.20 at Santa Anita on a day when Dialed In worked the same distance almost three seconds faster in :48.90 at Palm Meadows in Florida. Six days later Astrology went five-eighths in a pedestrian 103.20, the sixth-fastest work of nine that day. The 1 1/16 mile San Felipe and a date with the likes of Jaycito, Anthony’s Cross and Riveting Reason, who were first and second respectively, but only a nose apart at the finish of the Robert B. Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita Feb. 12.

Although it is still very early on the trail to the Kentucky Derby, the number of legitimate preparation races and opportunities to win graded earnings necessary to qualify for the Derby is suddenly diminishing. Owners and trainers with Derby hopefuls now must select their paths to qualify for the two most exciting minutes in sports through graded earnings. There are graded races for 3-year-olds from California to New York with Florida, Illinois, Arkansas and New Mexico in between before the Derby. But any given horse can only reasonably run in two of those stakes to achieve a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Those races will certainly clarify the Derby picture in terms of starters. But over the next two months, it will remain a mystery as to the winner.

Brock Sheridan - Sheridan graduated from the University of Arizona Race Track Industry program in 1982 and began a career of public relations, marketing and television production in horse racing that has spanned 25 years. He has also been a professional handicapper and has been following the Kentucky Derby since Majestic Prince in 1969. Joined SureBet in 2010. www.thebrocktalk.blogspot.com