It's A Theory, Pace Makes the Race - special report by Brock Sheridan

“Pace makes the race” may not be the oldest adage in handicapping theory, but trainer Ansel Williamson probably mentioned to jockey Oliver Lewis to take control of race early in the 1875 Kentucky Derby with Aristides.

Lewis broke on top in the inaugural Kentucky Derby, but was passed briefly by McCreery just as the field passed under the twin spires for the first time. Lewis quickly sent Aristides to pass McCreery and led the race down the backstretch, trying to slow Aristides and save enough energy to finish the race strongly. Aristides continued to increase his lead, but Oliver had the chestnut colt relaxed and running comfortable as they ran into the far turn. Down the stretch, late runners Volcano and Verdgris challenged with their rallies, but Oliver had saved enough fuel for Aristides and they won the first Kentucky Derby by two lengths. Lone speed on the lead.

Like the first running of the Kentucky Derby, pace will be a dominant factor in the 137th running of the oldest, continuously run sporting event in America. The challenge is to determine how the pace of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands will set up and influence the final results.

The first step is to determine the speed horses, or the horses which seem to be most comfortable leading the field from gate-to-wire. As the Kentucky Derby field sits at time of publication, Uncle Mo, Shackleford and Comma to the Top appear to be the ones most likely to try to get the lead. Pants on Fire, Soldat and Decisive Moment have also shown a fondness for front running, but they also seem to be as comfortable – or their respective trainers are trying to teach them how to be comfortable – while racing just off the leaders in a stalking position.

The stalkers generally make up the majority of any race and this year’s Kentucky Derby is no different. Looking to settle somewhere just behind the leaders or perhaps more mid-pack in the large 20-horse Kentucky Derby field are Animal Kingdom , Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Stay Thirsty and Watch Me Go. Master of Hounds and Toby’s Corner are also stalkers, but they have shown the ability to close late as well and should be further back in the pack.

The true closers in the Kentucky Derby are Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In and Nehro. They’ll all be running at the far back of the pack early, but look for them to come running around the far turn and down the long Churchill Downs stretch. They’re the ones that make you sometimes shout, “who’s that coming on the outside!”

The Kentucky Derby brings many challenges that these colts have never experienced and perhaps will never again endure. They carry 126 pounds for the first time when many have only carried 122 pounds in a race if that. They will race 10 furlongs, while the furthest any of them have raced before is 1-1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby is a full furlong – more than two football fields - further. The vast majority of this field will never race 1-1/4 miles again.

The media is at every barn every morning in hordes leading up to the Derby. Very few of these colts have ever experienced anything remotely close to the cameras and ruckus caused by the questions and interviews being conducted just outside their stalls.

Before the race, the 150,000 or so fans will begin to cheer as the horses and their respective entourages walk from their barns, around the clubhouse turn and towards the Churchill Downs paddock. From that point on, the roar will only be interrupted by the singing of “My Old Kentucky Home” during the post parade and the obstreperous crowd reaction as they break from the starting gate.

But perhaps their biggest challenge these colts will face Saturday will be the large number of horses they will be racing against. According to Jockey Club statistics, since 2005, the average horse race in North America has had slightly more than 8 starters. During that same time, an average of 19.4 horses have started in the Kentucky Derby each year.

Most races have one or two speed horses vying for the lead. This Kentucky Derby often has many more speed demons and this year is no different with six horses that have won races from gate to wire. With so many having a penchant for leading early, there are usually more than enough to ensure a much faster pace than normal, which can compromise those that get caught on the front end trying to keep up for 10 furlongs. The last horse to win the Derby gate-to-wire was War Emblem in 2002.

The stalking position in most races is just behind the early leaders, perhaps one to four lengths off the front runner. Last year, Super Saver was stalking while in sixth position, more than eight lengths from the front before he began his winning move. Just as he had done in other Derby victories, jockey Calvin Borel again got lucky with a clear path along the rail for Super Saver and most of his winning move that started before they reached the far turn.

The usual fast pace of the Kentucky Derby sets up well for closers. But closers have also have unique adversities in the Kentucky Derby. The first challenge is traffic. In the Kentucky Derby they must often pass 17-19 horses while making their delayed acceleration. At some point, three or four tiring horses can form a momentum stopping wall that forces the jockey on the closer to check or suddenly steer to the inside or out. Last year, Ice Box was repeatedly forced to alter course during his big late rally. Still eight lengths back at the top of the stretch, Ice Box would be impeded three more times before he fell short of Super Saver, finishing a frustrating second by just more than 2 lengths.

There is also the distance closers must make up in the Kentucky Derby. Again, because they must often times pass nearly 20 horses, they often find themselves further back than they would in an average race. In 2009, eventual winner Mine That Bird was nearly 20 lengths from the front after a half-mile. A year earlier, Street Sense also made up nearly 20 lengths to win the Derby. Interestingly, both horses were ridden by Calvin Borel.

So how is the 2011 Kentucky Derby going to set up? Post position will have something to do with it as the three inside horses have a high probability to fall victim to the equine tsunami that swarms toward the inside rail in the first quarter mile. Other horses breaking further outside will get eliminated by the bounces and bashing that ensues between the break and the first turn; and again as the horses begin to make the clubhouse turn.

When the field begins to sort out down the backstretch, look for Shackleford to be on the lead with Comma to the Top challenging or just off the front with Uncle Mo also right there. Pants on Fire and Decisive Moment should be in the next flight with Soldat up close as well. Animal Kingdom, Santiva, Mucho Macho Man, Twice the Appeal, Watch Me Go, Midnight Interlude and Twinspired will come next in some order with Stay Thirsty, Master of Hounds and Toby’s Corner next. Closer Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Nehro and Dialed In will bring up the back of the pack.

At the top of the stretch, Uncle Mo will begin to fight off Comma to the Top as Shackleford falls back. I expect Mucho Macho Man, Midnight Interlude and Soldat to be close enough to challenge at this point as well. Dialed In, Nehro and Archarcharch will be weaving through traffic or rallying from the far outside and will still have plenty of work to do as the field races past the eighth pole.

Within a few strides into the final furlong, Mucho Macho Man and Comma To The Top will come up to challenge a tiring Uncle Mo and with their momentum, they will begin to wear him down. Meanwhile, on the far outside, Archarcharch, Dialed In and Nehro will have made their way successfully through the now exhausted runners and with have no obstacles other than real estate to between them and victory.

Mucho Macho Man takes the lead momentarily in the last 100 yards, but Archarcharch gets up at the wire. Mucho Macho Man is second with Nehro winning a close show photo over Comma to the Top. Dialed In is just behind to round out everybody’s superfecta.

Pace makes the race. It is not revolutionary nor even contemporary handicapping advice. It is simply a basic principle in the art that is picking winners of races run by horses. With regard to the Kentucky Derby, the theory (less those horses eliminated early because of the riot-like charge to the first turn) potentially illustrates how the first six furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should come to pass.

It’s that last half-mile of the Run for the Roses that is so difficult to predict.
 

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