The Classic War Front Question

A horse race often presents as many questions as the proverbial Dr. Carter has pills. And the road to the Triple Crown has more than that – especially with many of the big prep races yet to be run before the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1) May 7.

Among the most difficult questions about 3-year-old Thoroughbreds with realistic aspirations of running in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, is whether the individual can compete at the classic Derby distance of 10 furlongs – 1-1/4 miles.

The query is challenging, of course, because of the obvious lack of evidence. None of these sophomores have ever run that far. So the next step in investigating this question usually leads to a study of pedigrees. In any given year, there will be those on the Derby trail that have more reliable pedigrees in predicting whether a horse can maintain his talent over 1-1/4 miles.

In recent years, stallions such Maria’s Mon, the sire of two Kentucky Derby winners in Monarchos (2001) and Super Saver (2010); Distorted Humor, the sire of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide and last year’s Belmont champion Drosslemeyer; and Birdstone, sire of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Belmont winner Summer Bird in 2009; have proven their ability to produce classic winners.

Then there are the stallions like Indian Charlie whose get just can’t seem to run farther than 9 furlongs. Last year, his Conveyance won the 1-mile Southwest Stakes (Grade 3) then lead the Derby field for 6 furlongs before fading to finish 15^th. In his roughly 10 years as a sire, his Fleet Indian has been the only runner to win at 10 furlongs at the Grade 1 level. The 2006 Champion older mare won both the Personal Ensign (Grade 1) and Delaware Handicap (Grade 1) over 10 furlongs. His Indian Blessing was the champion 2-year-old filly of 2007, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) and eventually won nearly $3 million on the track. The Indian Charlie daughter would go on to earn another Eclipse Award as a 3-year-old, but it was for Champion Female Sprinter of 2008.

Indian Charlie has two on the road to the Triple Crown this year with last year’s 2-year-old champion and current Derby future book favorite Uncle Mo, and Anthony’s Cross, winner of the 9-furlong Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Grade 3) at Santa Anita in February. From a pedigree standpoint, both have a strike against them, simply because of Indian Charlie’s record. That is not to say that Uncle Mo or Anthony’s Cross can’t win the Kentucky Derby – right now there are few saying anything negative about Uncle Mo. But the record of the pedigree remains.

Another stallion with two stars chasing after the Run for the Roses is War Front, sire of Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 1) winner Soldat and Rebel Stakes (Grade 2) winner The Factor.

On the track, War Front was predominantly a sprinter, winning the 6-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (Grade 2) and placing in several other graded sprints at age 4. War Front is by the great sire Danzig, who sired classic winners Chief’s Crown, Pine Bluff and Danzig Connection but is also well known for his success producing champion runners and sires in Europe. His production rate of 19 percent stakes winners is among the best in recent history, and he continues to influence as a sire of sires with the likes of Danehill, Maroof, Chief’s Crown, Boundary and Exchange Rate, to name a few. Even with those credentials, some say Danzig leans more toward producing speed, (especially on turf), which lends more to the argument that War Front, too, will be a sire of sprinters.

War Front is out of the mare Starry Dreamer by Rubiano, himself a champion sprinter and more evidence that War Front also will be a predominantly sprint sire. However, unlike Indian Charlie, War Front has no record of his get having difficulty getting the 10 furlongs. Soldat and The Factor are members of War Front’s first crop to hit the track. With War Front’s pedigree and record on the track, it is certainly reasonable to doubt whether Soldat or The Factor can meet that challenge if given the chance.

While only Soldat and The Factor can answer that question, there is hope.

Ken Carson, the general manager of Valor Farm in Pilot Point, Texas, contends there are many reasons for optimism regarding War Front and his sons Soldat and The Factor. “War Front’s first dam is by Rubiano, who was of course a champion sprinter, but he was a different kind of sprinter,” Carson said. “He was a real, come-from-behind type runner.

“The next dam of War Front (Lara’s Star) is by Forli, who was classic horse in Argentina. And then his (third) dam (True Reality) is by Round Table, so you get a lot of stamina there. So (War Front) can probably get you sprinter or he could get you a route horse.”

Carson also says having two good 3-year-olds in a first crop like Soldat and The Factor is “huge” for a young stallion like War Front – especially considering War Front stands at Claiborne Farm in Paris, Ky. “At some large commercial breeding operations, they’ll breed a stallion to 150-180 mares a year,” Carson said. “But at Claiborne, they won’t breed a stallion to more than 90 mares a year, so War Front does not have the numbers working for him like other commercial stallions.”

Although Claiborne Farm has for decades been the home of perhaps the most famous band of broodmares in the world in those owned by the Phipps families, War Front did not get the benefit of their quality in breeding the dams of Soldat and The Factor.

“Again, these mares didn’t give War Front purple, lush, Summer sale-type pedigrees. These mares aren’t bad – and they certainly just got better – but they are not Phipps’ stuff.”

That is what makes War Front impressive as a young sire. Having produced two colts in his first crop of 3-year-olds turning heads in the months leading up to the Kentucky Derby is significant for any young stallion. Soldat and The Factor will very likely increase the demand for War Front, which, in turn, should result in higher quality mares in his future bookings. Higher quality mares should result in better runners, and the cycle begins. If one or both should show the ability to compete at the classic distances, that cycle potentially accelerates to an even higher degree.

 “I would think of the two, The Factor might be more likely go a little bit farther, just because of (first dam Greyciousness by) Miswaki. But his second dam (Skatingonthinice) is by Icecapade and his third dam (Rain Shower) is by Bold Forbes. Icecapade was not a great broodmare sire, nor was Bold Forbes.

“The dam of Solidat (Le Reisis) is by Coranado’s Quest, who was a nice horse but not a great horse. His next dam (Malbay) is by Apalachee and the next dam (Sawmill Lady) is by Marshua’s Dancer. And then the next dam (Bobisque) is by Ole Bob Bowers.”

But we’re still in the preliminary stages of both War Front’s stallion career and his colts’ Triple Crown aspirations. Soldat will most likely start next in the Florida Derby (Grade 1) at Gulfstream Park April 3. The 1-1/8-mile distance of the Florida Derby should be of little concern, because he easily took the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) at Gulfstream Feb. 26 over the same distance.

The Factor, on the other hand, has yet to prove himself at farther than 1-1/16 miles, the distance of the Rebel Stakes. However, anyone who saw his Rebel victory -- including trainer Bob Baffert -- would tend to believe that the extra 1/16 of a mile will be of any concern. That question will be answered when The Factor takes his final test before Kentucky in the 1-1/8 Arkansas Derby April 16.

Should both Soldat and The Factor run well enough in their next starts to punch their tickets to Kentucky, there will still be that extra eighth of mile to cover in the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby. Nobody yet knows if either sons of War Front can get the extra distance. But that is, of course, the same question that can be asked about all hoping to run in the Derby because none of them have gone that far or will have a chance to go that far until the first Saturday of May.

Brock Sheridan - Sheridan graduated from the University of Arizona Race Track Industry program in 1982 and began a career of public relations, marketing and television production in horse racing that has spanned 25 years. He has also been a professional handicapper and has been following the Kentucky Derby since Majestic Prince in 1969. Joined SureBet in 2010. www.thebrocktalk.blogspot.com