Belmont On Tap - by Brock Sheridan

With just less than two weeks until the June 11 Belmont Stakes (Grade 1), it may be a bit early to pick the winner of the third leg of the Triple Crown. It is just too much of a challenge studying charts and past performances with the definite Belmont starters still probable and the probable starters just maybes.

But as the Belmont Stakes was first run in 1867 (making it the oldest of the Triple Crown events, predating the Preakness by six years and the Kentucky Derby by eight), there is plenty of information to peruse now in search of what defines a Belmont Stakes winner.

It should also be noted that if you don’t like to bet before you see the horses in the post parade -- before you can see the horses on the track with your own eyes -- you owe a debt of gratitude to the Belmont Stakes. The first post parade in this country occurred in the fifth running of the Belmont Stakes in 1871.

Last week trainer Graham Motion told us that Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1) winner Animal Kingdom is being trained for the Belmont, and chances are he will be the slight favorite over Shackleford, should the Preakness winner also enter.

Regardless, the Belmont Stakes has not been kind to favorites recently. In the last 30 years, only Swale (1984), Risen Star (’88), A.P. Indy (’92) Thunder Gulch (’95), Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (’05) have won the Belmont as the favorites. Going back to the 1970s however, six of the 10 favorites in that decade won the Belmont. Riva Ridge (1972), Secretariat (’73), Little Current (’74),Bold Forbes (’75), Seattle Slew (’77) and Affirmed (’78) all won the Belmont as favorites. The 1970s also produced three (the last three) winners of the Triple Crown.

During those same three decades, eight went to the post as the odds-on favorite and have lost. The last was Big Brown the 2008 Belmont, who did not finish at 3-10 odds . Smarty Jones had slightly higher odds (.35-1) in 2004, when second in the 2004 Belmont to Birdstone. Real Quiet (’98), Sunday Silence (‘99), Alysheba (’87) and Pleasant Colonly (’81) also lost their Belmonts with less than even odds.

It is important to dispel a common myth about handicapping the Belmont. Because of the long 12-furlong distance, it is thought to be advantageous to closers. The thinking goes that those horses who may have rallied in the Derby or Preakness but fell short, will enjoy the extra 440 yards the Belmont provides over the Kentucky Derby or the 550 additional yards compared to the Preakness. But recent history tells us quite the opposite.

In the last 10 years, both Point Given in 2001 and Da’ Tara in 2008 won the Belmont leading from the starting gate to the wire, and Empire Maker was just a length off of Funny Cide before he made his winning move in 2003. Other front runners who have stayed the course with tenacity include First Dude (2010), Dunkirk (’09), Smarty Jones (’04) and Medaglia d’Oro, who all finished second after leading after a mile. Of those, only Smarty Jones did not lead after the first 4 furlongs, but was a close-up third behind Purge and Rock Hard Ten after the first four furlongs.

The only Belmont winner too come from far off the pace in the last decade was Jazil in 2006. He came from last and from as far back as 11 lengths behind front-runner Pin Point before starting his rally. All the other Belmont winners during that time were five and-a-half lengths or closer to the leader after a half-mile. Most of them were no more than four lengths off the lead early.

Sir Barton won the first Triple Crown in 1919, but it wasn’t until 1930 that the term “Triple Crown” became in voque. That year Daily Racing Form columnist Charles Hatton used the term while writing about Gallant Fox winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont that year. Since then, nine other horses have won the Triple Crown while 19 others have come to New York with a chance at the illustrious title only to fail by losing in the Belmont Stakes.

There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, but Animal Kingdom and Shackleford still have a chance to join a select group of Belmont winners who won one of the first legs of the Triple Crown and not the other.

The advantage goes to Shackleford, as 18 horses have won the Preakness and Belmont without winning the Kentucky Derby. The first seven of this group however, did not run in the Kentucky Derby beginning with Cloverbrook in 1877 through Pillory in 1922. Thus, like the Derby-Belmont double, there are 11 horses to lose in Kentucky then win both the Preakness and Belmont.

After finishing second to 35-1 long shot Gallahadion in the 1940 Kentucky Derby, Bimelech became the first to run in all three races and win the Preakness and Belmont after losing in the Derby. The most recent was Afleet Alex who won the second two-thirds of the Triple Crown after finishing third to 50-1 long shot Giacomo in the 2005 Run for the Roses.

The first horse to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes after being tripped up in the Preakness was Zev in 1923. That year, Vigil II won the Preakness on May 13 then lost to Zev six days later in the Derby. Vigil II would not return in the June 6 Belmont won by Zev. After that, the list of horses that took the Preakness and Belmont after losing the Derby includes some of the all-time greats, including Native Dancer (1953), Nashua (’55) and Damascus (’67). Others to win the two races more recently after losing the Derby were also notable runners. Little Current (’74), Risen Star (’88), Hansel (’91), Tobasco Cat (’94), Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex in 2005 all won the Preakness and Belmont after Derby disappointments.

When pondering a Belmont Stakes winner, it is also important to discount any wagering theories passed down from Uncle Louis or Aunt Harriet during those childhood trips to Yonkers Raceway.

Betting gray horses in the Belmont Stakes is nearly futile with only two Belmont winners of that shade. One has to go back to Native Dancer in 1953 before the last gray Belmont winner can be found. Before that, 1895 winner Belmar was the only other gray to win the Belmont Stakes.

What colors should one consider? The Belmont Stakes has been won by a bay or a chestnut 53 times each. The last two winners, Drosslemeyer last year and Summer Bird in 2009, were both Chestnut.

Perhaps there is an alphabetical reason to wager on a Belmont runner. More Belmont winners have the first initial “C” than any other letter. Unless Kentucky Derby last-place finisher Comma to the Top makes an unexpected appearance in New York, that information may not be of much help. But it does provide some reference. The second most-popular first initial among Belmont winners is not surprisingly “S”. That’s good news for Shackleford as 18 previous “S” horses have taken the Test of Champions. There is some good news for Animal Kingdom and Peter Pan (Grade 2) winner Alternation as well though, as 10 previous Belmont winners had the same first initial “A”.

A race like the Belmont Stakes has seen plenty of trends and cycles during its 144-year history. A colt’s constitution and endurance are tested both by the 1-1/2 mile distance and as the third leg of the Triple Crown for those that tried the Derby and Preakness in the previous five weeks.

The race can also be a challenge for those fans trying to pick a winner. Winning favorites have been in rare supply during the last 30 years and it’s been since Affirmed in 1978 since the last Triple Crown winner. Despite what some may think, the Belmont does not cater to horses that close, and frontrunners seem to run unusually well. Not even those lucky gray horses that your aunt Harriet used to bet run well in the Belmont.

But it is truly the Test of Champions as 59 of its winners have been honored with divisional championships – the first of which was Harry Basset in 1871 with Summer Bird, the most recent in 2009. The Belmont has solidified Derby winners that lost in the Preakness and Preakness winners upset in the Derby.

Ten days before the race, the winner is currently a mystery. But if history repeats itself – as the old saying goes – the Belmont Stakes will have plenty to offer, as always.