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2009 foal crop heads to the 2012
Derby – by Brock Sheridan for SureBet
Between now and May 5, the day of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands
(Grade 1), the best of the 2009 Thoroughbred foal crop will train, race and be
dissected from nearly every angle known to fans, horsemen, jockeys and more
specifically, handicappers.
Analyses will be conducted on everything from speed figures, pace figures,
starts as 2-year-olds, starts at a mile or over here, or coming from an
artificial main racing surface over there. Owners, agents and players will use
tools not used to win or cash tickets on any other race in North America when
trying to find the right horse in the weeks and months leading up to the most
exciting two minutes in sports. It is the Kentucky Derby, after all, also the
most prestigious and unique race in North America.
The Derby is unique in that it is at 1-1/4 miles – and with very, very few
exceptions, it is the farthest any of the horses will have raced or will race
ever again. Even the 3-year-olds that race at this level with success will
likely only have the Travers (Grade 1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
as opportunities to race 10 furlongs again that year. Triple Crown survivors
will hit the Preakness after the Derby, but it is a 16th of a mile short of 10
furlongs. The Belmont is the longest of the Triple Crown races at 1-1/2 miles
(12 furlongs).
And because the distance of the Derby – and even the 1-1/8 mile final prep races
leading up to the Derby for that matter - are so unique with an emphasis on
stamina, the right pedigree can be an important asset for potential Derby
horses. Unless a thoroughbred remains among the very best of his class, he will
likely never race further than 1-1/16 miles for the remainder of his career.
Within that vane, there have been stallions with a great deal of influence over
the last three Kentucky Derbies. Because the popularity of stallions and the
breeding industry itself can be very fluid, recent study is important. For the
purposes of this analysis, influential is defined as being either the sire or
male-line grandsire of a Kentucky Derby starter.
Speaking in terms of the Derby starters’ male lines only since 2009, four
stallions have been prevalent as grandsires: A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Mr.
Prospector and Unbridled. Of the four, only Unbridled is a Derby winner himself,
producing one of the more memorable Derby moments as television caught trainer
Carl Nafzger calling the stretch run for 92-year-old owner Francis Genter.
Although the petite Genter was standing next to Nafzger, she could not see her
horse through the Churchill Downs crowd. Neither A.P. Indy, Storm Cat nor Mr.
Prospector started in the Derby but A.P. Indy did win the 1992 Belmont Stakes
(gr. 1).
In the last three Kentucky Derbies, A.P. Indy was the sire of 2009 Derby
favorite Friesan Fire while his sons have produced an additional seven starters.
The top performing A.P. Indy grandsons during this time have been Ice Box and
Nehro, both second in the 2010 and ’11 Kentucky Derbies respectively. Ice Box is
by Pulpit and Nehro is by the A.P. Indy son Mineshaft. Mineshaft also sired
Kentucky Derby starters Descreetly Mine (13th, 2010); and Dialed In (8th, 2011)
to join Smart Strike as the only two stallions with three Derby starters in the
last three years. Stay Thirsty (12th, 2011), by Bernardini; and Pants on Fire
(9th, 2011), by Jump Start; are the other two grandsons of A.P. Indy to have
started in the Derby.
Smart Strike is a son of Mr. Prospector, the male-line grandsire of five
starters in the last three Kentucky Derbies. Papa Clem (4th, 2009); Atomic Rain
(16th, 2009) and Looking at Lucky (6th, 2010) are all by Smart Strike. Mr.
Prospector is also the grandsire of Flying Private (19th, 2009) through his son
Fusaichi Pegasus; and Master of Hounds (5th, 2011) through Kingmambo.
Storm Cat edges out Mr. Prospector with six grandsons going postward for the
last three Derbies. Storm Cat has two Derby producing sons with two Derby
starters each in that time in Bernstein and Giant’s Causeway. Bernstein is the
sire of West Side Bernie (9th, 2009) and Make Music For Me (4th, 2010) while
Hold Me Back (12th, 2009) and Santiva (6th, 2011) are both sons of Giant’s
Causeway.
The 2011 Derby had three grandsons of Storm Cat, all by different sires. In
addition to Santiva, Shackleford (by Forestry) and Decisive Moment (by With
Distinction) are also grandsons of Storm Cat. Shackledford finished fourth while
Decisive Moment was 14th in the Derby won by Animal Kingdom this year.
Unbridled is the grandsire of three starters in those Kentucky Derbies,
beginning with Pioneerof the Nile, second to Mine That Bird in 2009. Pioneerof
the Nile is by Empire Maker while Unbridled’s other two Derby starters, (10th,
2009) and Mission Impazible (9th, 2010).
In addition to Bernstein, Giant’s Causeway and Unbridled’s Song, four other
stallions have sired two Kentucky Derby starters in the last three years :
Birdstone (by Grindstone), Candy Ride (Ride the Rails), Tiznow (Cee’s Tizzy),
and Kitten’s Joy (El Prado).
Of those stallions which have sired more than one Derby starter since 2009, only
Birdstone has produced a winner. Birdstone sired 2009 Derby winner Mine That
Bird and sixth-place finisher Summer Bird.
In addition, four stallions have sired and been the male-line grandsire of
Kentucky Derby starters in the last three years. Joining A.P. Indy on that list
are Fusaichi Pegasus, Indian Charlie and Awesome Again. Fusaichi Pegasus is the
grandsire of HomeboyKris (16th) through Roman Ruler and the sire of Flying
Private. Indian Charlie is the sire of 2011 Derby last-place finisher Comma To
The Top by way of his son Bwana Charlie and the sire of Conveyance (15th, 2010).
Awesome Again’s influence came in the 2010 Derby as the grandsire of
eighth-place Stately Victor and the sire of Awesome Act (19th).
Watching the star 3-year-olds by young stallions can also help define potential
2012 Kentucky Derby starters. Birdstone, Candy Ride, Chapel Royal, Ghostzapper,
Kitten’s Joy, Roman Ruler, War Front, With Distinction and Bernardini have also
produced a Derby starter in their first crop in recent years. Scat Daddy (by
Johannesburg), Hard Spun (Danzig), Hat Trick-JPN (Sunday Silence), Lawyer Ron (Langfuhr),
Corinthian (Pulpit) and Street Sense (Street Cry) are among the leading
first-crop sires of 2011 and will likely have contenders on the trail of the
2012 Derby and Triple Crown.
There are many different ways to approach picking the winner of the Kentucky
Derby. It is a difficult challenge – to say the least – to even determine those
that will be at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Trying to find him
or her in December is almost futile.
But there are stallions which have had a significant impact on the Run for the
Roses in recent years. And that – at least – can give the handicapper and fans a
head start before the New Year. Pedigrees may also prove useful in picking the
winners of the many Kentucky Derby prep races run around the country this winter
and spring.
Regardless, pedigree usually plays an important role in determining who’s in the
post parade when they play “My Old Kentucky Home.”
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